The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has projected that most parts of the country will receive more rainfall than average this year.
According to the “Monsoon Preparedness and Response” action plan of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, about 80 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall occurs during the four-month monsoon period—from early June to early October, while the remaining 20 per cent occurs over the other eight months.
For this year’s monsoon, there is a 55 to 65 per cent chance of above-average rainfall in the eastern part of Karnali Province, northern Lumbini, and most parts of Gandaki Province, a recent report reveals.
Similarly, the southern region of Sudurpaschim, western Lumbini, northeastern Gandaki, and the northern areas of Bagmati and Koshi have a 45 to 55 per cent chance of receiving above-average rainfall. The rest of the country has a 35 to 45 per cent probability of above-average rainfall.
The department’s forecast is based on the analysis of weather patterns produced by global and regional climate information centres under the World Meteorological Organization, as well as the assessment from the South Asia Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum.
Temperature Outlook
Similarly, the maximum and minimum temperatures across the country are also expected to be higher than average. There is a 55 to 65 per cent chance of above-average maximum temperature in the northeastern Sudurpaschim, northern Karnali, northern Lumbini, western Gandaki, western Madhesh, and central Bagmati.
In eastern Madhesh and central Gandaki, the chance of above-average maximum temperature is 35 to 45 per cent, while in the rest of the country, it is between 45 to 55 per cent.
The minimum temperature is likely to be above average in most areas of Karnali and Bagmati, central Lumbini, western Madhesh, and the Terai region of Koshi, with a 55 to 65 per cent probability.
