The country could lose up to 132,000 jobs and nearly $1 billion in economic output within five years as it prepares to graduate from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in November 2026, according to a new report by the International Labour Organization.
The study warns that the end of trade preferences currently enjoyed under LDC status may reduce exports, particularly in labour-intensive manufacturing sectors such as garments, textiles and carpets. These industries rely heavily on preferential market access, and their decline could significantly affect employment.
Job losses are expected to impact both men and women almost equally, though women remain especially vulnerable due to their concentration in export-orientated manufacturing and already lower participation in the workforce. Urban areas are likely to see higher job losses, with women workers facing a disproportionate impact. This could push many back into informal or unpaid work in rural areas.
The report estimates export losses ranging from 2.5 to 4.3 per cent, depending on markets and products. Without mitigation measures, the economic impact could deepen, slowing growth and limiting job creation.
Experts say the transition marks a major shift toward a more competitive global market, where factors such as product standards, labour conditions and environmental compliance play a growing role alongside tariffs.
To manage the transition, the report recommends targeted investments in sectors like trade facilitation, tourism and information technology, alongside policies to improve productivity and competitiveness. Strengthening labour protections, expanding skills training and supporting businesses will also be key.
Officials and private sector representatives say the transition presents both risks and opportunities but stress that early and coordinated action will be critical to avoid large-scale job and income losses.
