South Asia is bracing for a season of severe climatic stress as meteorological authorities issue a stark warning of impending drought and record-breaking temperatures. Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast a significant rainfall deficit combined with extreme heat for the critical four-month summer monsoon season, posing a substantial threat to the agriculture-dependent economy.
The climate outlook, spanning from late May to early October, indicates a high probability of below-average precipitation across vital agricultural zones. Southern Karnali, the majority of Lumbini, eastern Madhesh, and southern Koshi provinces face up to a 65 per cent chance of experiencing drought conditions. Similarly, significant portions of Sudurpashchim and central Koshi are expected to receive markedly less rainfall than usual. Only isolated northern pockets of the Karnali and Koshi regions might see standard monsoon levels, leaving the vast majority of the country vulnerable to severe water scarcity.
Compounding the threat of drought is an anticipated nationwide heatwave. Meteorologists predict that both maximum and minimum temperatures will soar above historical averages across the entire country. The highest thermal stress is projected to hit the southern plains and western regions, where the probability of abnormal heat exceeds 55 per cent. This unprecedented combination of diminished rainfall and escalating heat threatens to devastate crop yields and strain local water and energy resources.
Scientific modelling attributes these alarming projections to broader global climatic shifts. Experts point to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific Ocean, which is currently transitioning toward a phase historically linked to suppressed rainfall in South Asia. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to shift into a positive state later in the season. These atmospheric anomalies, alongside recent Eurasian snow cover patterns, are creating a synergy that disrupts the traditional monsoon currents essential for the region’s ecological stability.
While long-range seasonal forecasting inherently carries a degree of uncertainty due to the volatile nature of oceanic and atmospheric systems, recent trends lend weight to these warnings. Last year, similar meteorological forecasts accurately predicted elevated temperatures across the nation, even as rainfall patterns proved highly erratic. As summer approaches, the threat of extreme weather underscores the urgent need for comprehensive mitigation strategies to protect vulnerable communities and secure the nation’s food supplies.