The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) has projected that monsoon-related disasters, including floods, landslides, and flash floods, will affect approximately 226,661 people across 51,868 households nationwide during the 2025 monsoon season.
The projection was endorsed on Thursday at a meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Executive Committee chaired by Infrastructure Development Minister Sunil Lamsal, which also approved the National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Action Plan 2026.
Lumbini Province is expected to bear the heaviest impact, with an estimated 51,626 people across 11,814 households at risk. Koshi Province follows with 38,736 people affected, Madhesh with 35,361, Sudurpaschim with 33,227, and Bagmati with 32,897. Gandaki and Karnali provinces are projected to see relatively lower impact, at 21,641 and 13,175, respectively.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast below-average rainfall but above-average temperatures for this monsoon season — a combination that raises the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-altitude areas, along with heat waves in the southern Terai. Authorities note that this year’s monsoon pattern resembles those of 2014, 2016, and 2022.
Between 1,000 and 4,000 households could be directly affected in worst-case scenarios, NDRRMA said, representing roughly 10 percent of the most extreme projected impact.
The authority’s decade-long data underscores the urgency: over the past ten years, monsoon disasters have claimed 3,074 lives and left 502 people missing. Landslides were the deadliest cause with 1,483 deaths, followed by lightning strikes (805), floods (678), and heavy rainfall (108).
Responsibility for the response has been distributed across ministries. The Home and Defence Ministries will lead search, rescue, and relief operations, while the Ministry of Federal Affairs will oversee rapid recovery and coordination with local governments. NDRRMA will provide overall leadership and coordination.
