Electricity generation in Nepal is declining as the country moves deeper into the dry season, increasing reliance on power imports to meet growing demand.
With little winter rainfall and limited snowfall, river flows have dropped, reducing output from hydropower projects. Run-of-river plants, which depend directly on river discharge, have been particularly affected. Private sector-led projects have also seen a noticeable fall in production.
Forecasts from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology suggest below-average rainfall this season, raising concerns that river levels could decline further in the coming weeks. This may add more pressure on domestic electricity generation during the remaining winter months.
Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) officials say the situation is challenging due to reduced water availability. Although around 400 megawatts of new generation capacity have been added to the national grid over the past year, it has not been enough to offset seasonal declines.
On Magh 25 this year, NEA projects generated 5,325 megawatt-hours of electricity, slightly lower than the 5,435 megawatt-hours produced on the same date last year. Meanwhile, peak demand has increased. Last Sunday, demand reached 2,051 megawatts during the evening peak, compared to 1,958 megawatts on the same day a year earlier.
To manage the shortfall, the NEA has increased electricity imports from India. Average imports rose to 419 megawatts last Sunday, up from 167 megawatts on the same date last year. However, in terms of total daily energy, imports have been slightly lower compared to last year.
NEA officials say there is no immediate cause for alarm, noting that electricity imported from India is currently available at relatively affordable rates. For now, authorities plan to balance supply and demand through a mix of domestic generation and controlled imports as the dry season continues.