Growing tensions in West Asia have begun to disrupt global fertiliser supplies, raising concerns over Nepal’s ability to secure enough for the upcoming planting season.
The impact is already visible in international markets, where rising prices and shipping disruptions are making imports more difficult. For Nepal, which relies heavily on fertiliser imports, the situation could directly affect paddy cultivation in the coming months.
Officials say that even though some shipments are in transit and existing stock offers short-term relief, supplies are unlikely to meet total demand. The country is expected to require significantly more fertiliser during the peak planting period than what is currently available or confirmed for delivery.
Global supply chains have come under pressure due to restrictions along key maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, a major corridor for energy and fertiliser trade. At the same time, major producers have prioritised domestic needs, further tightening availability in the international market.
Costs have also surged sharply, with fertiliser prices nearly doubling in some cases due to higher energy costs and transport expenses. This has created a gap between contracted prices and current market rates, discouraging suppliers from fulfilling agreements on time.
The situation is further complicated by the expiry of a key government-to-government supply agreement with India, which has yet to be renewed. Limited alternatives and financial constraints are adding to the uncertainty.
A prolonged shortage could lead to reduced agricultural output, higher food prices, and increased import bills. Experts warn that without timely intervention, the crisis could have wider economic consequences, particularly for farmers and low-income households.